Monday, August 19, 2024

BIDEN MISPLAYED INFLATION

 


Recently Vice President and Democratic Presidential candidate Kamela Harris announced an economic plan to federally ban price gouging by "setting clear rules of the road to make clear that big corporations can’t unfairly exploit consumers to run up excessive corporate profits on food and groceries.”  This is the right thing to do politically, because President  Joe Biden's administration, and by extension, the Vice President herself,  have had low approval ratings on the economy for quite some time now.  By coming out on this issue more strongly than Biden has, Harris can forge a more forceful image for herself on the economy and blame big corporations for price inflation, a popular idea with many voters.  

But while it may be the right thing politically, economically it doesn't seem necessary: the most recent reports on inflation show that it has sunk to under 3% for the first time since 2021.  Clearly, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates have cooled down the economy enough that inflation is under control again.  So her plan feels like a solution looking for a problem, and honestly I think that by the time she's in office if she wins, inflation and price gouging will have been reduced as an issue to a point where she probably won't actually do anything about it.  To me it's all political theater, but if it helps her win, I'm fine with it.  

This issue does reveal one of the weaknesses of the mostly good Biden presidency: he should have made inflation a bigger issue.  Overall, the economy has been strong under Biden, with excellent job growth and a skyrocketing stock market.  But the issue of inflation has been blamed on him even though it wasn't his fault, and, of course, inflation is something that all Americans see at the grocery store.   It reached a high of  9.1% in 2022, and recent polls say that many Americans think that  increased government spending is what caused it, and while that is perhaps part of it given how much pandemic financial relief was passed by both the Biden and the Trump administrations, other factors like the pandemic leading to  increased product demands and compromised supply lines are another part.

And then there's the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022.  Although Biden mentioned the invasion as it related to American inflation in some speeches, he failed to hammer the point home effectively, so few Americans know how that war has affected food prices not only in American but also all over the world.  Before the invasion, the Ukraine was the world's fifth biggest exporter of wheat and other grains, obviously the war has changed that.  The invasion also triggered a round of sanctions against Russian oil exports that inevitably lead to a rise in oil prices.

So, if one person is to be blamed for the increases in the price of gas and groceries, it should be Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, but I doubt most Americans even are aware of this.  I wish that the Biden administration really had pushed harder on the fact that Putin's invasion was more than an attack on Ukraine, it was a blow against the economies of Western countries.  Oh sure, the right wing media would have scoffed at Biden blaming Putin for what they saw as his own failed economy, the message may still have gotten through to many swing voters.  Sadly, it didn't, and now Harris has to break with the soon to former president on the economy as a way to sell herself as a different kind of Democrat.  While I sure hope it works, I think she would have an easier job of it today if Biden had more effectively linked Putin to inflation.

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

WAS WALZ THE RIGHT CHOICE?



 

Ever since she announced her candidacy for president, there has been much speculation about just who Kamala Harris would pick for her running mate.  Although the effect of a vice president on an election is usually negligible, the race right now is extremely tight, and the right or wrong choice could make a difference in certain swing states.

Her choice, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, has both pluses and minuses: on the one hand, he seems like a genuinely nice guy.  He grew up in a small town, he's a former football coach, and he's progressive in a plain spoken way.  On the other hand, Minnesota is not a swing state, and while Walz's good nature may win a few votes from undecideds in middle America, whether he can help out with those prized swing voters in electoral rich states like Pennsylvania and Michigan remains to be seen.

Harris engaged in a lot of reviewing and considering before going with Walz, and while Democrats seem mostly happy with him, some have said that Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro should have gotten the nod.  This is understandable in that Shapiro is a very popular governor in a state with 19 electoral votes.  Picking him might have helped push Harris over the top there.  On the other hand, Shapiro is Jewish, and running a ticket with a mixed race woman at the top with a Jewish VP might have been a tough sell in middle America.  (For the record, there's never been a Jewish VP;  Joe Lieberman ran with Al Gore and they lost a highly contested election back in 2000).  Walz, on the other hand, is a Christian, Lutheran, to be exact. Shapiro is also seen as being too pro Israel at a time when that country's war in the Gaza strip has become highly controversial.  Personally, I tend to think that she should have gone with Shapiro, given the importance of the state he governs.  Still Walz's basic decency is hard to resist.  And Shapiro will certainly get out and campaign for her in his state, which should help.

If Harris loses both the state of Pennsylvania and the election in November, the choice of Walz will be seen as a big  mistake, but there's also a chance that having a likable middle American dad will help out in a Harris victory.  Certainly, he seems excited to be on the ticket, as their first joint rally showed.  Perhaps he's just what Harris needed.