WILL THE SOFT LANDING EVEN BE NOTICED?

 

A year ago, when inflation seemed out of control and the economy was overheating, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome H. Powell started slowly but surely raising interest rates to slow down economic growth and reduce inflation.  Many economists feared that this would inevitably lead to a recession, just as it did back in the 1980's, the last time inflation was out of control.

But recent numbers have revealed that country may be in for what's called a soft landing, that just right mixture when higher interest rates reduce inflation without causing the country to fall into an outright recession.  Powell recent comments show that he believes inflation, which has fallen from 9.1 percent in 2022 to 3.1 percent, is now under control and that no further raising of interest rates will be needed anytime soon.  Those rates may even be lowered sometime next year.  All of this is happening while the country's unemployment rate remained at a historically low 3.7 percent.  The good news saw the stock market rally to new heights. 

But will this good news sink in with the American people?  Recent polls that show Donald Trump defeating Joe Biden in next year's election show not only Republicans but also independents and a significant number of Democrats trusting Trump over Biden on economic issues.  Some polls give Trump a whopping ten percent edge on economic matters.  The Biden administration has tried in vain to push Bidenomics as a good thing, but the country's sour mood on the economy doesn't seem to be shaking.

The reason seems to be clear: increased job and gross domestic product  growth are not things that the average American can really see in their lives.   But inflation?  It's always there, at the gas station and the grocery store.  And it's human nature to blame that inflation on the Biden administration, even though its roots lie in the days of the pandemic lockdown when Americans stayed home and bought goods online, driving up  demand while supply lines were often compromised by covid.  

The hope here is that by the time the election roles around, the public will get used to the higher prices (which won't be increasing at an alarming rate anymore), and Biden will start getting some credit for the economy.  This was the same winning formula that Ronald Reagan had back in the 1980's, when the recession ended just in time for him to win reecletion in a landslide.  That combined with Trump's legal troubles and the backlash against Republicans since the overturning of Roe Vs. Wade may be enough to win Biden a second term.  Considering Trump's dangerous rhetoric about his desire to be a dictator, I certainly hope that that will be the case.  Biden may be old, but I would vote for Methuselah before I vote for Trump.

IT'S GETTING HARDER AND HARDER TO DEFEND ELON MUSK

 Two days ago marked the one year anniversary of my getting a Tesla.  I was planning to blog about this by saying how much I loved the car, with all its high tech doo dads like auto steering and doggy mode.  And how I was able to easily travel from San Francisco to Los Angeles and Las Vegas  without a problem thanks to the many readily available high speed charging stations there are.  Plus I also wanted to mention how much I don't miss stopping at gas stations.  (I never knew how much I hated the smell of gasoline until I didn't have to inhale it anymore!)

Yes, I was ready to talk about all of that.  And then Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded to a tweet a few days ago.  Now I've already blogged about my feelings about Musk way back in 2021 (you can read that here), but at that time he seemed just another unlikeable billionaire.  But then in October of 2022, just a month before I got the Tesla that I ordered, Musk bought the social media site Twitter and his extreme views started trickling out as the company floundered under his erratic control.  From changing its name to X, to going back and forth on charging for blue verification boxes, his unruly leadership may have reduced the company's value by as much as 90% according to Fortune magazine.

This all came to a head when a November 15th post from some fool named The Artist Formerly Known as Eric said:  "Okay.  Jewish communties(sic.) have been pushing the exact kind of dialectical hatred against whites that they claim to want people to stop using against them.   I'm deeply disinterested in giving the tiniest shit now about western Jewish populations coming to the disturbing realization that those hordes of minorities that support flooding their country don't exactly like them too much. You want truth said to your face, there it is."  Musk responded the same day with "You have said the actual truth."  With that one simple phrase, Musk is endorsing one of the most insidious anti Semitic conspiracy theories out there, known as The Great Replacement Theory.  It claims that a wealthy Jewish cabal support replacing white people with minorities all over the Western world.  This wasn't the first time that Musk seemed to flirt with anti Semitism, as he has defended the surge in anti Semitic posts that have appeared on X since he took over by criticizing the  human rights group the Anti-Defamation League for mentioning that surge.  He's even threatened to sue them.

But this time he has gone too far, and the fallout out from his offensive endorsement has been swift, with companies like IBM and Apple pulling their advertising from the already reeling X.  But the sad fact of the matter is that, in the long run, none of this will really matter to Musk.  Oh sure, he may be humiliated if X goes bankrupt, as it appears it may, but he will always be one of the richest men on the planet, and his other companies will always generate revenue for him.  Just look at Space X: as the New York Times has pointed out, even as the Joe Biden administration has condemned  Musk's views, the government has just confirmed that they will give over a billion dollars to Space X for launching Pentagon satellites next year.  The sad fact of the  matter is that Space X has a virtual monopoly on valuable satellites and is a privately held company, giving Musk a stranglehold on space exploration that the government won't be able to break anytime soon. So no matter how offensive Musk's views are, he will never face any real fall out from them.

In a way, Musk represents the problem with raw capitalism: here is a man who holds no political office but, through the sheer power of wealth, holds sway over every American citizen (and pretty much everyone in the world).  He's the living embodiment of our need for a wealth tax, but that's a pipe dream.  And shaming him doesn't seem likely to phase him.   Dustin Moskovitz, a co founder of Facebook, has called for him to resign "from everything", a sentiment that I agree with, but what good will it do?

Which brings us back to me and my Tesla. Is it wrong for me to keep it given what Musk has endorsed? Trading my car in for a different model would be a hassle, and I do love it. So I've decided to keep it for now, hoping that the Tesla company, (which unlike Space X is not privately owned) might be able to force Musk out.  (The possible belly flop that the upcoming Tesla Cybertruck could take might also do the trick).  If I could get in a time machine, I'd go back and buy a Polestar instead of a Tesla, but for now, I seem to be stuck  in the odd position of loving my car and hating the leader of the company that makes it.

IS TRUMP GOING FULL ON FASCIST?

                        ver·min

/ˈvərmən/

noun

1. wild animals that are believed to be harmful to crops, farm animals, or game, or that carry disease, e.g., rodents.

   • parasitic worms or insects.

     "his clothes are infested with vermin"
   • people perceived as despicable and as causing problems for the rest of society.

     "the vermin who ransacked her house"

         

Last Saturday,  during a speech that was supposed to be about Veteran's Day, former President Donald Trump said this "In honor of our great Veterans on Veteran’s Day, we pledge to you that we will root out the Communists, Marxists, Fascists, and Radical Left Thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our Country, lie, steal, and cheat on Elections, and will do anything possible, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and the American Dream."  He posted the same words later on social media.  This is important in that this was not one of his infamous ad libs, this was a definite message that was crafted  beforehand for him to announce in a holiday speech.  In other words, this is the message he and his advisors wanted to make.  To make matters worse, when his reference to calling political opponents "vermin" clearly seemed to echo the kind of arguments of former fascist dictators like Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini,  Trump Campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said, “Those who try to make that ridiculous assertion are clearly snowflakes grasping for anything because they are suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, and their sad, miserable existence will be crushed when President Trump returns to the White House.”  Not exactly the most reassuring words coming from someone who advises the man who may be the next president.

And he's not just saying these things, his advisors have said that if he wins, he  plans to purge the federal government of any workers that he deems not sufficiently loyal.  Then he wants to use the justice department as his personal hit squad against  any of his political opponents.  He has already pledged to go after the "Biden crime family" even though he won't say what for, or how his administration would somehow find crimes committed by the Bidens that the House of Representatives hasn't been able to find in their own impeachment inquiry into President Biden.  Again, it's not even about successful prosecutions, it's about hurting anyone who disagrees with him, despite political disagreements being one of the cornerstones of any democracy.  But then, he just wants to be a fascist dictator anyway.

And then there's his plans for immigration: Trump's attempt to carry out mass deportations as president was mostly thwarted by courts and lack of enforcement.  But he and his cohorts plan to come out running if he wins, with head immigration advisor (and famously xenophobic bigot) Stephen Miller hoping to have a conservative supreme court allow the Trump administration to use not only  Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents but allow the police and the national guard to conduct raids on businesses hiring undocumented immigrants.  The immigrants would then be placed in camps on the border and then mass deported by the millions.  Trump also wants to end birthright citizenship (which is in the constitution, but he doesn't care) and perhaps even bring back the unpopular child separation  policy  at the border and revive his Muslim ban.  The justification for all this is that the second Trump administration would be doing what President Dwight Eisenhower did back in the 1950's when a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants was public policy.  What the Trump people  leave out is that Operation Wetback (yes, it was really called that!) was infamous for its brutality, with over 80 deportees dying from being left without food or water in staggering heat.

This would all be morally reprehensible, with terrible conditions being enforced, families being torn apart, and inevitably American citizens regularly being targeted by authorities and even being wrongly swept up into the camps.  It would also devastate the economy, with numerous companies losing thousands of workers all at once.   But it would also play into the hatred of immigrants (especially the ones from Mexico) that have driven Trump's base since day one.

None of this is new, Trump has had fascist tendencies since the very beginning, as he has praised undemocratic leaders like Vladimir Putin and Kin Jong Un because he sees them as "strong" instead of brutal dictators that censor unfavorable media and  have their political opponents killed.  The difference was that in his first term Trump tried to be a fascist and was blocked by laws and members of his own administration.  If he gets a second term, the conservative supreme court he created and the sycophants he will surround himself with will remove most of those blockades.   In other words, saying that American democracy is at stake in the next election is not just a campaign slogan, it's the truth.

IS AMERICA REALLY GOING TO ELECT TRUMP AGAIN?

 

All recent polls of the highly likely rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden show that President Biden may be in big trouble.  In crucial swing states, Trump is beating Biden, with voters trusting Trump more on the economy and thinking that Biden is too old.  Trump even may be eating away at the usual big lead that Democrats have with minority voters.

Now it's still early, the election is more than a year away, and a lot can happen.  But the idea that Americans may be signing on for 4 more years of Trump's chaos and corruption makes me want to bang my head against a wall.  Has the country suffered from collective amnesia?  Do we not remember that shameful day when Trump fired up an angry mob that beat police officers and stormed the nation's capital?  Have we forgotten how horribly he handled the covid crisis? Does the fact that Trump is currently facing 4 criminal indictments mean nothing to them?  What about howTrump's guilt in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case, which  means that the jury believed that he did sexually assault her?  (We can now take the word "alleged" away we call Trump a sexual predator).

Look, I get it, the country is in the post pandemic doldrums. and while the economy is strong (unemployment is actually lower now than it was under Trump), there has been  heavy inflation that effects the average person more than economic growth does, and the president, rightly or wrongly, is going to get the blame for those high prices  Meanwhile, the crisis on the border continues, with more refugees seeking solace and conservative Governors bussing those refugees to places like New York City or Martha's Vineyard.  Plus there's a lot of terrible things going on in the world today, what with the war in Ukraine grinding on and  Israel invading Gaza in response to cruel terrorists attacks.  

And yes, Biden is old, the oldest president ever, and I do agree that his stepping down and letting someone else run would be a good thing.  But he's determined to run, and I think he's mentally sharp enough to handle the presidency.  And I'm infuriated that Trump's recent verbal stumbles don't seem to hurt him in this regard, and somehow the fact that he's only 3 years younger than Biden doesn't sink in with the public.  (Much of that has to do with the constant media narrative that focuses more on Biden's age issues than Trump's).

So yes, things are stressful both nationally and globally right now.  But the idea that Trump will somehow calm all of that is absurd (he can say that the invasion of Ukraine and the terrorist attacks in Israel would never have happened if he were president, there's certainly no evidence of that).   Hopefully, the recent interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve will slow the rise of inflation without tipping the country into a recession, and a strong economy will finally be felt by the general public next year, helping Biden's chances.  I certainly hope that that's the case, because another Trump term would be nightmarish for this country, from his denial of climate change to his ending aid to Ukraine that would tip the balance of that conflict to Trump's pal Vladimir Putin, to his calls to purge the federal government of any workers who don't share his vision for the country, to so many other horrible things that he would do, another 4 years of Trump is a terrifying prospect.

THE HOUSE'S CHOICE

 

In the weeks long chaos that it took to finally elect a Republican Speaker of the House, there was a brief, shining moment when the small, sane part of the party might have prevailed.  Jim Jordan, who was roundly endorsed by former President Donald Trump, was shot down by Republican House members who didn't want to vote for someone who denied that Joe Biden won the 2020 election.  Instead, Tom Emmer, a Minnesotan moderate was ready for a vote.  While I certainly don't agree with Emmer on much, he did vote to certify the 2020 election for Biden.  Sadly, that's what did him in, as Trump took to social media and branded Emmer as a "RINO", and his name was withdrawn without a vote (perhaps because an open vote would have allowed Democrats to vote for Emmer, outweighing the conservative votes against him).  Oddly, Trump didn't have enough clout to get Jordan elected, but he did enough to get Emmer tossed.

In any event, after Emmer the House went back to the drawing board and elected someone just as extreme as Jordan.  Oh sure, eventual winner Mike Johnson may not be as outspoken as Jordan, nor does he have Jordan's checkered pre political past (google "Jim Jordan's wrestling coach career  controversy" to read the jaw dropping charges), but when it comes to election denial and conservative views,  he's even worse.  Ignoring the rejection of Jordan, Trump crowed on social media that Johnson should be called "MAGA Mike" because he not only voted against certifying Biden's victory, he has been called one of the chief congressional architects in Trump's attempt to undo the election.

Along with endorsing Trump's election lies, here are some of the other political views that Johnson is well out of the mainstream on:  He's compared abortion to the Holocaust.  Wrote that “Experts project that homosexual marriage is the dark harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy that could doom even the strongest republic.” in 2004.  In 2006 said this about the left:  “In the space of a few decades, they have managed to entrench abortion and homosexual behavior, objectify children into sexual objects, criminalize Christianity in the popular culture, and promote guilt and self-doubt as the foremost qualities of our national character.”  He is on the record as wanting to increase the retirement age and decrease Social Security and Medicare spending along with other social safety net programs.  In 2016 he blamed no fault divorce, abortion and feminism for school shootings.  And he's not just a Christian, he's a fundamentalist who thinks that the earth is only around 6000 years old.

Yes, despite his mild mannered, soft spoken demeanor, Johnson is an extreme right winger who should never have been given the power of being Speaker of the House.  Amazingly, he still may prove to not be extreme enough for some House Republicans, who may wind up resenting any kind of upcoming deal he makes to avoid a government shutdown in the coming weeks.  Yes, the modern Republican party is so ungovernable, with a vocal,  far right wing that thinks that a federal government shutdown is a good thing, that even Johnson may wind up being tossed out like McCarthy was after he "betrayed" the right and cut a deal with the Democrats to keep funding the government.  The best thing that can happen here is that next year all those moderate Republicans serving in districts that Biden won in 2020 will lose and the Democrats will run the house again.  As imperfect as they may be, at least the Democrats don't want to blow up the federal government.

REMEMBERING YITZHAK RABIN

 

The terrorist group Hamas recently lead what was the deadliest attack on the state of Israel in over 50 years.  (Indeed, it appears that the attack was made to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war.)  The attacks were well coordinated and utterly brutal, with civilians, including children, targeted and hostages taken. 

It appears that the group's motive was an attempt to stop a normalization process that is currently being negotiated between Israel and Saudi Arabia.  Also, the recent chaos in the Israeli government, with prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing corruption charges while he's also trying to controversially overtake the country's judicial system, may have lead to an image of perceived Israeli weakness.  Of course, the attacks have only unified the Israeli government behind  Netanyahu.

Israel now is readying a full on military assault into the Gaza Strip, and it is already telling civilians to flee away from the northern area of the Strip, where they are preparing to invade.  While I certainly support Israel's right to exist and defend itself, I do fear that the force of the attack may result in such heavy civilian casualties that it will further inflame the hatred of Israel in the Muslim world.  And such a war may not necessarily be easily won, not when Hamas is willing to use both civilians and hostages as human shields.

Given all the sadness and horror going on, it's hard not to reflect on how things might be very different right now if Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin hadn't been assassinated back in 1995.  At that time Rabin had begun a peace process with then Palestinian Liberation Organization leader Yassir Arafat known as the Oslo Accords, that would have returned some  territories occupied by Israelis  to the Palestinians.  While the accords were inevitably controversial in both Israel and Palestine, it seemed then that Rabin truly wanted peace and was willing to compromise to get it.  He was even awarded a Nobel Peace Prize in 1994.

In 1995 Rabin was shot and killed by Yigal Amir,  a right wing Israeli who felt that Rabin was selling out Israel.  The killing was a double tragedy, in that it not only ended Rabin's life, it also pushed Israel to the right politically, with every prime minister since pursuing an aggressive stance with Palestine and the idea of compromise being forgotten.  While there's certainly no way of knowing just what the Middle East would be like now if Rabin had never been assassinated, in the wake of a horrific terrorist attack, it's hard to believe that things could be worse if Rabin had lived.  I see him as truly heroic man who's killing set both the Middle East region and the world backwards.

THE BRIEF REIGN OF KEVIN MCCARTHY

 The Republican party showed just how much it is run by its most extreme members when they booted Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy out of his leadership position just a few days ago.  While I have no sympathy for McCarthy, the difficulty of his position reveals how far to the right the party is today: yes, the man who said that Trump won in 2020, bowed down to him just days after the January 6th riot, and pushed for an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden wasn't conservative enough for some House members.  His sin (to them) was his recent willingness to cut a deal with Democrats to keep the government open another 45 days without demanding draconian spending cuts to the budget.  And, because of his bowing to the right, no Democrat was willing to to support him, leaving him a man without enough support in his own party to get the votes to remain speaker.  It's really remarkable, but not surprising, that a minority of the Republican party, which only currently controls only one branch of congress, thinks that they should have undue influence in the running of our government, without making any attempt to compromise, or even accept that they are in the minority. 

It should be pointed out that the voting out of a house speaker is something that has never happened before in the entire history of our country.  Yes, another terrible precedent has been broken by the Donald Trump wing of the government.  And don't kid yourself, Trump was part of this.  He has both privately and publicly stated that he wants Biden impeached, forcing McCarthy to push for an impeachment investigation without evidence.  Trump also seems to think that the house can somehow rescind his two impeachments.  He even posted on social media that he thought that shutting down the government would somehow end the criminal trials that he's facing.  And to top it off, some congresspeople think that Trump himself should be elected speaker, something he hasn't completely dismissed.    And the idea that a one term, twice impeached former president facing multiple felony charges could be voted in as leader  of the House of Representatives, putting him in charge of the phony Biden impeachment investigation, shows just how completely loony tunes our politics have become since Trump entered the scene.

All of this madness comes with the backdrop of recent polls showing Trump tied with or ahead of Biden in next year's presidential election.  Now while those polls are early, and a lot of could happen between now and then (for one thing, Trump's court trials will be taking place), it is horrifying that a corrupt criminal sociopath like him could even get one percent of the vote.    But, as always, the strength of the Trump cult and its hold over a surprisingly significant percentage of the population is seems unbreakable, no matter how many crimes he has obviously committed.