Friday, May 12, 2023

WILL 2024 BE ANOTHER 2016?




 After the Republican party had a weak mid term showing in 2022, it looked like perhaps the party was ready to move on from Donald Trump, given that his hand picked candidates faired poorly and his overall influence on the party hurt them in the election.  That poor showing, combined with the then ascendant rise of Florida Governor Ron De Santis as a 2024 candidate, seemed to indicate a possible change in the future of the party.

What a difference half a year can make!  The criminal charges brought against the former president regarding his Stormy Daniels pays off before the 2016 election rallied the party faithful around him, and made his primary opponents have to issue statements of support for him against the charges.  Meanwhile De Santis was in the tough position of somehow beating Trump in the primary without losing the support of his loyal base, while Trump could hammer away at him with impunity.("Ron Desanctimonious" is the typically childish and stupid nickname that Trump has picked for the governor), The result has been a huge drop in support for  De Santis in the past few months.  While he is still likely to announce his candidacy sometime soon, it already appears that De Santis's chances of winning the nomination are slim to none.  

Personally, I feel a bit torn about the whole De Santis Vs Trump thing; on the one hand, as much as I despise De Santis's politics, I think he would be a better president than Trump, given that he's not a wildly  corrupt sexual predator like Trump is.  So part of me wants De Santis to win just to put Trump in the country's rear view mirror.  But on the other hand, I think De Santis would be a stronger opponent to President Biden than Trump, given that De Santis is only 44, and he could hammer Biden on the age issue, which clearly is on the mind of voters (even a majority of Democrat voters think that Biden is too old to run again).  So part of me wants Trump to win the primary, given that Biden beat him before and should be able to  do so again.  But, that was also my thinking back in 2016 when Trump was mowing down his Republican opponents in the primaries; oh sure, I thought, the Republicans may love this guy, but there's no way he'll win in the general election.  Obviously, I was wrong, and Trump somehow winning in a 2024  Biden Vs Trump rematch certainly isn't an impossibility, especially given the Republican advantage in the Electoral College. 

Recent events have shown that there's just no limit to how low Trump can go and how much the Republican base love him for it.  Just watch his deplorable recent town hall meeting on CNN, in which the crowd cheered Trump's every lie and deflection, even as he repeatedly insulted E. Jean Carrol, the woman who had just won a 5 million dollar suit against him for defamation of character after he denied her allegations that he raped her in a dressing room back in the 90's.  (His comments were so vile that Carrol is considering suing him again!).  Although the town hall's moderator, Kaitlan Collins, vainly tried to fact correct him, the jeering crowd of his supporters helped him bully her into submission, and the night appeared to be mostly a win for Trump, who now seems to be inevitably barreling his way into the Republican nomination.  Somehow,  a twice impeached one term president facing multiple criminal charges (with more likely on the way) could be president again.  And that's a true national disgrace.