THE START OF THE DUMPSTER FIRE PRESIDENCY

 Steve Bannon, the self proclaimed white nationalist advisor to President Donald Trump,  describes his plan for Trump in his second term is to "flood the zone with shit", that is, to do so many things at once that the media, the Democrats and the public will all have to scramble to keep up with it.  In just the first month of his second term, Trump has obviously taken that to heart.   

Trump kicked off his presidency by pardoning all of the January 6th rioters, including ones that beat police officers (so much for back the blue!).  He followed that with a flurry of executive orders, some symbolic (America only recognizes two genders), some predictable (he pulled out of the Paris climate change accord) and one brazenly unconstitutional (an end to birthright citizenship in violation  of the 14th Amendment).  He also fired 18 inspector generals (the people charged with non partisan over site of federal departments),  several career attorneys who had investigated him in the past, and sent out an email to millions of federal workers pushing them into resigning,  because, of course, he isn't sure that they're loyal enough to him.  

In his quest to return America to a place where white, straight heterosexual men run everything, he  called to completely dismantle Diversity Equity and Inclusion hiring programs in the federal government, saying that all hiring should be based on merit (pretty rich coming from a guy who would be nowhere without his daddy's money).  He has responded to both a terrible fire in California and a plane crash in  Washington DC by blaming  DEI hiring, essentially implying that any person who isn't a white heterosexual male in any position of authority doesn't deserve to be there.  At one point he tried defunding congressionally approved federal funds but was blocked by a judge and later rescinded the order after an outcry over programs like Wheels on Meals getting defunded.

To me, the cruelest cut of all was his decision to freeze almost all foreign aid, and to withdraw completely from The World Health Organization,  both of  which will result in people suffering all around the world.  This is not only despicable, it's also foolish: people in countries aided by the US inevitably have a more favorable attitude towards us, and China may very well take up the slack we leave, making our biggest rival in the world more popular in many parts of it than we are. And leaving the WHO may be even worse, as it ends our ability to access global data on health issues, which will probably be a big deal as bird flu continues to spread. It becomes even more absurd when you consider that the cut to foreign aid and payment to the WHO amounted to a savings of around 70 billion federal dollars; for context, our total federal spending last year was almost seven trillion.  In other words, the cost of saving people's lives in other countries only amounts to about one percent of our government spending, but Trump has decided against it.

And then there are his tariffs.  For months, Trump's defenders have said that he's only going to use them as a negotiating tool, but on Tuesday February 4th. they will become a reality.  They impose a 10% tariff on all goods from China, a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico,  and a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada except for energy and oil, which will still pay 10%.  While Trump has been talking about punishing Mexico and China for years, entering into a trade war with Canada seems especially crazy given how long we've been allies and how reliant the American auto industry is on Canadian products and  oil. While he claims this is all about stopping the flow of drugs like fentanyl and undocumented immigrants into our country, both Canada and Mexico have already taken steps to prevent both, and border crossings are the lowest they've been since 2020.

Part of the reason that Trump loves Tariffs is that he can just put them in place without facing any constraints from congress or judges, allowing him to act like the fascist dictator he wishes he were.  What he doesn't seem to realize is that they will wind up raising prices on the average consumer, as affected companies will inevitably raise prices to cover the tariff cost.  In other words, Trump's solution to the problem of high prices that helped get him elected will only make it worse!  

What can the Democrats do about any of this?  Sadly, without any control in congress, not a lot. Although Trump's nominations for cabinet positions have at least faced some tough grilling from Senate  Democrats,  for the most part  Dems  and the rest of the world can only look on as Trump burns down the government and distorts American democracy to his bidding, with the midterms elections in two years being the only possible hold on him.  I do often wonder if America can really survive the utter corruption and degradation of Trump's political movement.  We'll found out in the next two years.

WHY TRUMP'S NEXT TERM WILL BE WORSE THAN HIS FIRST

 When Donald Trump won in 2016, it was seen as a fluke, even by Trump himself (reportedly he had no victory speech prepared because he thought he didn't need one).  The public was shocked and many members of big businesses were afraid to cozy up to a president who lost the popular vote by millions and inspired women's marches across the country.

But  this time the wealthy companies saw it coming and began fawning up to Trump even before he won.  His inauguration tomorrow will feature several of the richest people in the world cheering him on, all of whom have donated millions to his campaign or inauguration.  (Elon Musk personally donated over two hundred million dollars!). 

Sadly, the media in 2024 couldn't seem to remind the public just what an utterly chaotic and corrupt first term Trump had, even before the pandemic: from his defense of  a white supremacist rally ("Very fine people.") to child separation  at the border.  And his conflicts of interest will continue; once again the Trump Hotel in Washington DC will be a place where foreign dignitaries can stay and run up huge bills as a way to bribe the president (You'd think such a flagrant violation of the emoluments clause of the Constitution would be a serious issue,  but not any more).  And every time Trump plays golf, he will once again charge an entrance fee to the Secret Service agents he brings with him.   His family will also always stay at one of the Trump hotels when they travel and charge their Secret Service agents a room fee.  Yes, a family that always boasts of its wealth and love of our country  will still bilk the tax payers at any opportunity when they could just as easily comp those agents that our tax dollars pay to protect them.

Recently, Trump has promoted  crazy ideas like the US taking over Greenland, Panama and even Canada, but I'm not worried about any of that.  He has the attention span and temperament of a toddler, and once he's in office one of his people will wave a toy in front of his face and he will forget about these things.  (He mentioned buying Greenland in his first term and then quickly dropped the idea, which I assume he will again).

But there are some things that he definitely will be moving on, and, unlike in 2016, this time Trump is prepared to hit the ground running. Here is  a list of just some of the damage that he will do:

    The environment: To me, Joe Biden will always be remembered as the president who did more to fight climate change than any president before him (which is pretty sad considering its been a concern for decades).  Trump, who has said that he considers climate change a hoax and that ocean wind farms drive whales insane(!),  will, of course, attempt to reverse all of that.  While the move towards electric cars in this country will probably continue even without his help,  he can and will open up more and more land to oil drilling and reduce air emission standards, all while the evidence for climate change can be seen in our ever increasing number of global natural disasters.

    Tariffs: Trump's love of tariffs dates back decades, but he doesn't seem to understand how they work!  He honestly thinks that putting a tariff on imported goods is a way to collect taxes from foreign companies without any consequences for the US.  But he doesn't seem to realize that those companies will pass the cost of those tariffs onto the American people by raising prices.  Now, some targeted tariffs aren't necessary a bad thing, but Trump is considering an across the board 20% tariff on all imports, and perhaps a 60% tariff on all imports from China, which would cause American prices to skyrocket.  Kind of ironic from a president who won partly due to a backlash against inflation.  Now, some Trump defenders have said that his tariff threats are just a bargaining chip to be used against foreign countries, and I hope they're right.  But he really seems to be a true believer in them.  Even worse, he can just impose them without any congressional or judicial oversight.  

    Immigration:  One thing Trump was right about in 2016 is that he won because of his "Build the Wall" mantra, although, of course, he failed to do that as  president because actually building that wall proved far harder than he had made it seem.  That explains why he's moved from building a wall to the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants in this country.  There are currently around thirteen million undocumented immigrants in America today, and rounding them all up, processing them and then  deporting them would be a colossal  undertaking costing billions of tax payer dollars. On top of that, it would tear families apart and inevitably sweep up American citizens into the system.  But even if you have no problem with the costs or morality of it, the mass deportation that he wants  would destroy the American economy, because much of it is dependent on undocumented labor.  For example, a recent article in the New York Times pointed out that deporting undocumented immigrants would  decimate the American Dairy industry.  As Pete Wiersma, the president of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association put it bluntly,  if undocumented immigrants were all deported “I don’t think there would be milk.I just don’t think we could get it done.”

    Health:  A sobering recent report on the bird flu virus that has been spreading among American livestock finds that it is only one genetic mutation away from being able to be passed from human to human.  Even worse, milk has been found carrying the virus.  Now the good news is that milk pasteurization greatly reduces or eliminates the virus.  The bad news is that unpasteurized milk (or so called "raw milk") has inexplicably become popular in certain circles in this country, even in the face of the fact that between 1998 and 2018, at least 2,645 people fell ill after drinking raw milk, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  And the real bad news is that Robert Kennedy Jr., Trump's choice to run the department of Health and Human Services, is a big proponent of raw milk.  Yes, the anti vaccine lunatic with no real scientific or research experience may soon be in charge of our nation's health while we stand on the precipice of what may be a serious outbreak of bird flu among humans.  Putting it bluntly, there could not be a worse person  at a worse time running that department.  I only hope that the Republicans in the senate can show some shred of decency and vote against his nomination.

    The Justice Department: Recently Pam Bondi, Trump's pick for attorney general, claimed that "politics will not play a part" in whom she decides to prosecute.  While Bondi certainly is a better candidate than Trump's original choice for the position, the loathsome Matt Gaetz, it still seems possible that she will use her power to settle scores against Trump's perceived enemies than to investigate actual crimes.  This becomes increasingly likely given that Trump has repeatedly said that his political opponents should be put in jail.  It also doesn't help that Trump's choice for leading the FBI, Kash Patel, once published a book with a list of politicians that he sees as enemies that he very well may target in some way or another as FBI chief.  Unfortunately,  it looks like both Bondi and Patel will be confirmed by the Republican Senate, which will cement Trump's desire for retribution against any political figure who doesn't think that he won the 2020 election or any politician that he does not see as properly loyal.

While there are certainly other terrible things that Trump will do as president, from going after trans people to perhaps even signing a national ban on abortion, I think these four points will be his focus and they all have me deeply worried about the next four years.  I was very pessimistic about our nation's future before Trump's first term, but now I'm even more pessimistic. 

THE DEMON RUM

 Recently,  Surgeon General Vivek Murthy called for warning labels to put on alcoholic beverages, citing recent studies that show a link between alcohol use and multiple forms of cancer.  This link was sometimes found even in people who only drank moderately.  These recent findings fly in the face of the oft repeated belief that some drinking can be good for you, which was based on some other recent studies that were trumpeted by the media and have now been called into question.  Murthy's call for common sense warning labels may go unheeded considering just how rich and powerful alcohol companies are, but I think it's a good idea.  As  Dr. Ernest Hawk, the vice president and head of the division of Cancer Prevention and Population Sciences at the University of Texas  recently put it,   “There is no safe level of alcohol when it comes to cancer risk.” 

It seems to me that one of the problems with alcohol consumption in this country is  that the deadly possible  effects of alcohol are often downplayed because it's legal.  The linking of heavy drinking and good times, from margaritas at brunch to downing shots after work, has lead to the belief, (wrongful in my opinion) that heavy drinking is an acceptable stress reliever. Now, I would never in a million years say that prohibition should be brought back, but I do think Americans should take a long hard look at our alcohol consumption, which not surprisingly spiked upward during the pandemic and has remained stubbornly high ever since.

On a personal note, I've always hated the bitter, acidic taste of alcohol.  I've only been drunk twice in my life, and the horrific hangovers I faced afterwards pushed me into giving it up entirely. I don't miss it all, and I haven't had a drink in over thirty years. I also hate what alcohol did to my father, who lost years of his life because of a long running drinking problem.

But on a less personal note, I also hate what alcohol has done to the world: hundreds of thousands of people all around the world die from alcohol poisoning or cirrhosis of the liver every year.  And then there are the thousands of people who die in car accidents involving drunk drivers, and the fact that according to the National Institute of Alcohol and Drug Dependence, around forty percent of all violent crimes are committed by people under the influence of alcohol (there's a reason why we refer to an "alcohol fueled rage"),  That number rises to almost half for murders.   Remember that alcohol is also a physically addictive drug that causes addicts to shake in agony when they try to quit.  It may be legal, but it's seriously dangerous.  

Do I think that the US can be convinced to cut back on drinking?  Yes, because there is a precedent: tobacco use.  Although tobacco still kills hundreds of thousands of people in this country every year, the number of tobacco users is far lower than it used to be: according to the American Lung Association, in 1965 over forty percent of Americans used tobacco products, while the current rate is a mere eleven percent.  That decline didn't happen because tobacco was made illegal, it happened because the American people were shown the dangers of tobacco use, and millions of them wisely decided to quit or never start.  A similar system should be put in place to get Americans to start drinking less.  It's for the best.