The Democratic convention was last week, and, considering the enormous changes that the coronavirus pandemic caused, it actually went quite well. There were a few technical glitches, but no serious problems. Barack and Michelle Obama gave powerful speeches, capturing the fear that so many Americans have at the prospect of four more years of Donald Trump. Bernie Sanders gave a more full throated endorsement of Joe Biden than he did of Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen, which probably angered her, but also showed the seriousness of this election. As for Biden's speech, well, Trump's recent, childish taunts about Joe Biden's mental acuity set the bar so low for him that it was almost impossible for him not to exceed expectations. And he did, with even conservative outlets admitting that he did a fine job.
Generally speaking, there is some debate as to just how much effect conventions really have on elections. Usually, the candidate of the party that just held their convention gets a small bump in the polls right afterwards that eventually fades away by election day.
If conventions do make a difference, the more lasting ones seem to be more about provoking a backlash than anything else. Way back in nineteen ninety one, conservative commentator Patrick Buchanan ran against then president George Bush in the primary by deriding the president as betraying Republican principles; Buchanan also added heavy doses of outright xenophobia and homophobia. Buchanan didn't win the primary, but he did well enough to earn a prime time speaking spot at the convention. He then proceeded to whip up the crowd by delivering a speech in which he declared that "There is a religious war going on in our country for the soul of America. It is a cultural war, as critical to the kind of nation we will one day be as was the Cold War itself". He sprinkled references to what he called "homosexual rights" and the nineteen ninety one riots in Los Angeles, saying "And as they took back the streets of LA, block by block, so we must take back our cities, and take back our culture, and take back our country." While in the moment this fiery speech succeeding in energizing the convention crowd, it's extremist tone probably backfired against Bush, scaring away moderates and helping him lose the election.
And then in two thousand and eight, vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin gave a speech at the Republican convention, and, as with Buchanan's speech, it delighted the crowd. But it also caused a huge influx in donations to the Obama campaign. In fact, the Obama campaign raised over ten million dollars the day after speech, without doing any official fundraising! Once again, crazy rhetoric played well to the base of the party while scaring off moderates.
Somehow, this pattern did not follow again in twenty sixteen, perhaps because the vile hatred and boasts that Trump spewed then were no different than the speeches he had been giving for months. People already knew what they were getting.
But what of this year's convention? Well, deprived of his adoring crowds, Trump may seem a little diminished, and I'm sure his words have all been analyzed carefully before he reads them off a teleprompter. But, in a predictable move, he is bucking tradition by speaking at more than one night of the convention, which means that there is a fair chance that he may go off script (as he often does during his teleprompter written speeches) and start improvising his thoughts, which, as his many speeches have shown, are often full of hate and lies, not to mention his odd obsessions on topics like low flowing shower heads!
And there's an even greater chance than some of the other speakers will hurt him in some way; to me the most potentially offensive words may be spoken by Mark and Patricia McCloskey, the married couple that stood outside their house holding weapons because they felt "threatened" by peaceful Black Lives Matter protesters. What possible message can they hold for America other than racial fear and love of guns? Inviting such incendiary figures to a major party convention could prove disastrous for the Republican party, but then, I could be wrong.
It pains me to say it, but it's true. Part of Trump's winning coalition in twenty sixteen were voters who shifted after supporting Obama in twenty twelve. Will the RNC produce extremist speeches that result in them fleeing the Republican party in November? It seems possible, and I certainly hope it will. Biden is going to need to bury Trump so that Trump can't cry foul and try to steal the election. And that burial may begin this week. Stay tuned.
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