PESSIMISTIC/OPTIMISTIC

 

With  the presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris a mere two days and the race seemingly deadlocked, I have reasons to be both pessimistic and optimistic.  Here the reasons I'm pessimistic:

1.  Trump outperformed the polls in the last two elections.  When trump won in 2016, it hit many Americans (myself included!) like a thunderbolt, because every poll had Clinton ahead.  And then the polls were off again in 2020, with Biden winning by a smaller margin than predicted.  It appeared that either pollsters weren't reaching Trump supporters, or that many people weren't willing to admit to those pollsters that they were going to vote for him, or a combination of both.  Either way, if Trump beats the razor thin polls again, he will almost certainly win.

2.  Trump is winning on the economy.  The number one issue with Americans in presidential elections is almost always the economy, and voters have been looking back fondly on the days of the pre pandemic Trump years and giving him higher marks on the issue than Harris.  This is frustrating, because the economy has been good overall for the past four years, with solid job growth and a soaring stock market.  But people really notice and hate inflation, which exploded in 2021-2022 for a number of reasons.   While inflation has come down significantly in the past few months, residual anger over it may give Trump the win.

3.  Trump is also seen as strong on the border.  Trump's signature issue has been ending undocumented immigration and building a wall on the Mexican border.  During the pandemic, then president Trump sealed the border with Mexico for heath reasons.  Shortly after Biden returned to office, as the pandemic receded, the border was reopened and there was a flood of border crossings, from both undocumented immigrants and refugees, which caused many Americans to want to return to Trump's hard line policies.  As with inflation, recent numbers have actually decreased, but many voters are still angry about it.

4.  Trump is polling surprisingly well with African American and Latino men.  It's a bit hard to believe that a man who once characterized a white supremacist rally as having "wonderful people on both sides" could get more support from minority men than  any Republican Presidential candidate in modern history, but here we are.  Along with the above issues regarding the economy and immigration, Trump has really tapped into the anger and frustrations of working class men of all races in the country, which could obviously help him.

5.  Post pandemic anger at incumbents is real.  Even though the pandemic is well behind us, the residual effects of it, from inflation to a brief spike in violent crime, have soured voters towards incumbents not just in America, but globally.  While Harris has tried to break from Biden in her campaign, she has been Vice President for the past four years, and that anti incumbent feeling may be enough to push Trump over the top. 

Here's why I'm optimistic:

1. The polls could be right.  Most of the polls have shown Harris with a tiny lead (sometimes less than a percentage point) in many swing states.  While those polls are all within the margin of error, its better to have a very small lead in an election than none at all.  And because Trump's views have become more mainstream Republicans ones, people answering polls might not be ashamed about admitting that they're voting for him, which means the polls will hold and Harris will win enough swing states to take the White House.

2.  Abortion is a big issue,  One thing that the polls have shown definitively is that this will be the most gendered split election ever, with many female voters anger over the recent overturning of Roe Vs Wade pushing them towards the Democrats.  The issue is galvanizing enough that, for the first time in this century, a majority of  white women may vote for  a Democrat instead of a Republican for president.  And there are more female voters than male ones in the country.

3.  Harris is gaining on the economy.  When Joe Biden was still in the race, Trump was trouncing him on the issue of the economy.  While Trump is still being given higher marks on this issue than Harris, she has definitely closed the gap.  It helps that inflation has recently gotten under control and Americans, despite some economic pessimism, are still out there spending.

4.  Trump has had a terrible closing.  Trump's 2016 campaign was an absolute garbage fire, but somehow he still won, so we can't count him out just because he's surrounded by chaos; that's always been his thing.  But his Madison Square Garden rally, which featured a comedian making racist jokes about Puerto Ricans, a crucial voting bloc,  has been regarded as a mess that could cost him.  And his age is clearly starting to show, with his speeches veering into more and more incoherent rambling.  Hopefully, Americans have gotten fed up with Trump's non stop lies, boasts, and childish insults and realize that it's time to move on.

So there you have, my mixed feelings about this election in a nutshell.  Of course, there's also the issue of Trump refusing to concede if Harris does win, but that worry is for another day.