Donald Trump just started his reelection campaign officially, kicking it off with a speech in Florida last Tuesday, and like a toddler banging on a piano, he hit same the chords that he always has over and over again. He lied about his job as president ("Perhaps the greatest economy we've had in the history of our country."), bashed Hillary Clinton as if she were still his opponent, railed against undocumented immigrants, and boasted constantly (he called his 2016 win "probably the greatest election in the history of our country.”) The only real takeaway from this speech was how much the media coverage has been changed by his crazed behavior since he took office: once upon a time a president that described the opposing party with the words “Our political opponents look down with hatred on our values and with utter disdain for the people whose lives they want to run.” and that the Democrats stand on immigration was “the greatest betrayal of the American middle class and, frankly, American life”, would be seen as a big deal, acts of overreaching aggression. But the news media mostly yawned at his hate mongering; same old Trump.
His speech certainly seemed to fire up the president's base, as the crowd cheered his every move as he puffed himself up with self importance. But is his base large enough for him to win reelection? He is, after all, the first president in modern history to never have an approval rating over 50%. And recent polls show him losing badly to Joe Biden, and several other Democratic candidates (in typical fashion, when his own pollsters showed him those numbers, he fired them!).
But none of this certainly means that the Dems have the election in the bag. First of all, the election is well over a year away, and various unexpected news stories could affect the outcome in ways we can't foresee. Plus, Trump has already raised a huge war chest to spend, meaning that this campaign will be far less chaotic and freewheeling as the last one, especially now that the entire party has fallen behind him, come what may.
Also, there is a different X factor in facing Trump that must have the Democrats worried: never before has a celebrity candidate swooped in and won the biggest office in the land without ever running any kind of campaign before. How do you run against someone who has only had one unlikely but successful campaign? Since Trump's kickoff speech shows that he intends to run for reelection the same way he ran in 2016, there is no doubt that this will be yet another ugly campaign, with him creating a childish nickname for whomever his opponent is (he's already using "Sleepy Joe" for front runner Joe Biden) and then lying about his or her record repeatedly and shamelessly (remember when he called Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton "the co-founders of ISIS?"). The tricky thing is just how to counter such a barrage of lies and insults? During the 2016 primary contest, Republican Marco Rubio tried out descending to Trump's level, (making crude remarks about Trump's hand size) and looked foolish, gaining no traction in the race. But then when Clinton tried to mostly ignore Trump's mud slinging, she still lost too.
So what will work against a president that's never lost an election? Personally, I think the Clinton route was the right one, even though she lost. Remember that Trump's victory was a matter of luck in the Electoral College, aided by Russian interference and that infamous letter to congress from James Comey. The Democratic candidate should mostly ignore whatever crazed thing Trump is tweeting or saying and stick to issues like health care, education and student loan debt. It's important to remember that Trump's novelty factor has worn off, and that he can no longer call himself an outsider. Add to that the fact that 2016 polls showed that many voters were personally repulsed by Trump but still voted for him under the expectation that the office would somehow change him, which obviously hasn't happened. Overall, I think the Democrats stand a good chance to retaking the White House, but it's certainly no certainty, and we're in for another ugly, cringe inducing campaign either way.
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