As Donald Trump continues to flail vainly at the outcome of the election, and his political career looks like it will soon be in the rear view mirror, it might be a good time to consider just how America elected such a man in the first place. While there are a number of factors that led to his election, from white resentment to the Comey memo, one factor that is rarely talked about is Trump's image as a celebrity.
Before that, let's look at the reelection of Barack Obama in two thousand and twelve. After his victory, the Republican Party went through a lot of soul searching. When he had won the first time in two thousand and eight, they rationalized that fall out from the disastrous Iraq war and the terrible economy meant that no Republican could win that year. But Obama's second victory was different, as it was a straight up battle between Republican and Democratic priorities, and Obama's win seemed to show a definite shift in attitudes in the American public. The Republican party realized that if they didn't find a way to appeal to younger, non white voters, their days in the White House coming to an end. And yet, four years later they would embrace a candidate who seemed to have zero to say to anyone but white older voters. And he improbably won.
It's amazing to remember now what a joke Trump's campaign looked like back in twenty fifteen. Most of the media dismissed him as a silly sideshow, a TV star in over his head, making racist comments in his opening speech and lying and bragging constantly. But he kept winning, despite the fact that he broke every rule of being a successful politician (not to mention every rule of common decency). After openly criticizing the war record of Senator John McCain, many Republican politicians thought that his political career was over. But he just kept steamrolling.
While much of his popularity in the Republican party seemed to stem from his channeling of the angers, fears and hatreds of older, white Americans, his appeal went beyond the limits of his party. When he won the twenty sixteen election, he was able to also get enough independent (and even Democratic!) votes to push him over the finish line. Surely not all of his support was based on pure racism. After all, analysis by the UVA Center for Politics after the election found that millions of voters switched from Obama to Trump. So race was not the only deciding factor in his twenty sixteen win.
So what else was it? What could possibly make people who voted for Obama vote for a man who repeatedly said that Obama was not a legitimate president? Well, I think one answer can be found in an interview I heard with one of those voters, a pro choice, woman who supported gay marriage, and yet switched from Obama to Trump. When asked why, she replied that "He's a successful businessman, he knows how the economy works." This to me maybe the key to Trump's political success: he's never been a politician, he's a celebrity, one with a strong image burned into the minds of the American public.
Remember, Trump is truly a unique figure in presidential politics; never before had someone moved so quickly from celebrity to president. Yes, Ronald Reagan had been a movie star, but by the time he ran in nineteen eighty, he hadn't been in a movie in many years. Trump, on the other hand, was still a television star the day he declared. So Trump is still to this day a celebrity first and a politician second, and that has played well for him because the public holds celebrities to a different standard than politicians. For example, way back in nineteen eighty eight, then Senator Joe Biden had to drop out of the presidential race, just because he plagiarized a speech. Trump obviously did far worse than that in his campaign, but it didn't matter, because, as he himself put it on the infamous Access Hollywood tape: "When you're a star they just let you do it, you can do anything." People have always forgiven, and even encouraged, bad behavior in our celebrities. From The Rolling Stones openly using drugs to Hugh Grant getting busted for soliciting a prostitute, famous people are almost never punished for the things they do. This helps explain why Trump's offensive statements and lies have rarely hurt him politically.
Also, another important thing to think about is the persona that celebrities build around themselves. Look at John Wayne, a star who for years personified the swaggering, manly man in movie after movie. Did it hurt his image that he chose not to serve in the military during World War Two? (He was too old to be drafted, but was young enough to have served voluntarily if he had wanted to). No. He had branded his image as a tough guy in so many movies that it didn't matter. He was still the ultimate cowboy. And so it is with Trump, who has spent most of his life promoting himself as the ultimate successful tycoon. Just look at the opening credits of his television show The Apprentice, which depicts him as almost godlike, as he goes from flying in a private helicopter, to riding in a limo to entering a skyscraper that bears his name. To million of viewers, there was no question that he was a great businessman and dealer. The fact that he inherited his father's already very profitable business, or that he declared bankruptcy five times, didn't matter. His image of a wealthy, self made man was more powerful than the truth. Given this, even his terrible treatment of women can be excused; that's just how powerful men are. They take what they want because they can.
Twice now, Trump has beaten the polls, which pegged him to lose to Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen and to lose by a bigger margin to Biden than he eventually did. But there is still some good news for the future here. I think that the Trump presidency will be seen as a once in a lifetime phenomenon. Currently, there are no other right wing media figures out there who could bring his combination of celebrityhood, extreme self confidence and image of success into the political arena the way he did. What that means is that the Republican party got very lucky in twenty sixteen, and that they are still going to have to find a way to appeal beyond their old, white base if they want any more national success in the future. But then again, Trump could run in twenty twenty four...
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