In America, ex presidents tend to fade away quickly. Oh sure, they'll write a book and show up at conventions, but for the most part they are seen as yesterday's news. This is especially true of one term presidents, who are forever seen as losers with little importance in their parties. Once again, Donald Trump has shattered norms, as he continues to influence the Republican party, holding court in his Mar a lago resort while savoring his role as kingmaker and considering another run at the presidency in twenty twenty four.
A few months ago, this all seemed unlikely. After the violence that occurred at the Capitol on January sixth, it looked like the same Republican party that had shrugged off everything Trump had said and done (from birtherism to multiple sexual assault charges) was finally ready to put him in the rearview mirror. Even though he was not directly impeached and removed from office, the vote was the most bipartisan impeachment vote ever, and several of his allies, like Senator Lindsey Graham, denounced him on the floor of congress. It seemed to make sense; Trump was the most unpopular president in modern history, and his leadership of the party had resulted in them losing both houses of congress and the presidency. Hardly an impressive record. Add to that the fact that he was banned from Facebook and Twitter because of his comments leading up the riot, and you have a party in need to move on from a one term loser.
But sadly, things have changed. Trump may now be without his much beloved twitter handle, but he can still give interviews and speeches or release statements that read like a longer version of his tweets (that is, rambling, dishonest and full of childish bragging). And of course he has never taken any responsibility for the Capitol riot and continues to spout the lies about the twenty twenty election that inspired it, while his minions in the right wing media go along with him and even try to downplay the seriousness of the riot. The result of Trump's continuing demand for attention is that Republican voters have stayed with him, as polls show that over seventy percent of them think that the election was stolen by Joe Biden. This has put the Republican politicians in an awkward spot of their own making. With so many of their voters believing Trump's election lies, most of them refuse to say for sure that Joe Biden won, and they are using this doubt by their voters to pass laws that they claim are to stop voter fraud, but that are really aimed at making it harder for non white voters to vote. Republican politicians also have to support Trump's latest obsession; a recount in the state of Arizona that is being lead by a pro Trump company (with the reassuring name of Cyber Ninjas) that Trump claims will find "thousands and thousands of votes". Even if this absurd process being carried out by a highly partisan organization were to somehow overturn the vote count in the state of Arizona, there's no way that the election of twenty twenty could possibly be overturned at this point. But Trump doesn't care, he's just a delusional schoolyard bully who always thinks he'll never lose unless the other side cheats.
As the Republican party continues to be the cult of Trump, any dissention from their chosen messiah has become heresy. Just a few days ago Senator Mitt Romney was booed by members of his own party, who almost voted to censure him. This from a party that wanted to make him president in twenty twelve! Right now, House member Liz Cheney is being stripped of her power by her fellow party members in the House for the crime of voting to impeach Trump and refusing to believe the lie that he won. It's a sad indicator that Cheney, the same woman who has defended her father's disastrous decision to invade Iraq when he was Vice President, and who came out against gay marriage in her first election run back in twenty fourteen (essentially stabbing her lesbian sister in the back), is now seen as one of the few standard bearers of truth in the Republican party, but here we are.
Where we this end? There's really no telling if the Republican party can ever go back to the land of reality now that their voters have openly embraced Trump's lies. The only bright spot is that Trump continues to be popular in the Republican party partly because many people are leaving it. But the Republicans have gotten so good at gaming the system to their advantage, from the electoral college to gerrymandering, that they don't even need a majority to win anymore to retain power. So the country is stuck with having one of its major political party parties being held hostage by Trump fanatics and Qanon supporters.
What does all this mean for Trump himself? I think it's entirely possible that he will run again in twenty twenty four. And while it's easy to think that there's no way that such an unpopular president could possibly win again, he has so thoroughly trashed our political system that it isn't impossible. I'll never forget how, back in twenty fifteen when Trump was just starting to run, he insulted the war record of Senator John McCain ("He's not a war hero"). At that time I thought his political career was finished; imagine if any other politician, especially one who had never served in the military, had said the same thing about McCain. Obviously, I was wrong. So with Trump, all bets are off. If he could win after running a chaotic twenty sixteen campaign that saw members of his own party asking him to drop out after the release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape, then it's possible he could win again. Although the thought horrifies me, Trump regaining the White House is twenty twenty four is possible.
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