The midterms elections yesterday looked like a sure thing for the Republican party: with inflation stubbornly persistent, violent crime increasing and Joe Biden's approval rating in the low 40's, a red wave looked inevitable. And yet, with vote totals still coming in, it really hasn't happened. While the GOP is still favored to win the House, it will be by a much smaller margin than predicted, and the Democrats may hold the Senate. Putting it bluntly, this will be the weakest midterm election for a party out of power in the White House in decades. While there are a number of reasons for this (the abortion issue is one of them), I think the main one is Donald Trump and his continuing influence over the Republican party.
Consider everything that has happened since Trump's unlikely victory in 2016: his party lost seats in the 2018 midterm, lost the presidency and both houses of congress in 2020, and have now underperformed in the 2022 midterms. (And, because the former president seems obsessed with bragging about the size of his rallies, it should be pointed out that anger at his election inspired the 2017 Women's March, the largest single day protest in American history). Add to that the fact that the former president has spent the last two years purging his party of anyone who doesn't publicly contest the 2020 election and pushing forward terrible, unqualified candidates like Dr Mehmet Oz, making this midterm election as much about him as his party, and it's clear to see that Trump has little ability to reach beyond the rabid base of the Republican party that still worships him.
So what can the Republican party do, chained to an unpopular, wildly egotistical leader who's poised to announce his candidacy for 2024 any day now? The answer may lie in Florida, where governor Ron DeSantis cruised to an easy reecletion victory last night with one eye clearly on the White House. Trump already clearly appears worried about a DeSantis run: not only did he not campaign for DeSantis in Florida, he held a competing rally there, and tried out a childish new nickname for the governor ("Ron DeSanctimonious"). While DeSantis is currently running behind Trump in primary polls, his victory in Florida and the party's poor showing nationally may push other Republicans to rally around DeSantis. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out: DeSantis would probably have a much better chance at winning in 2024 than Trump, who is so divisive outside of his own party. But will primary Republican voters choose him? Watching the two men share a debate stage while agreeing on the issues and attacking each other personally will probably make for a low point in American politics, but then, that's where we've been stuck at ever since Trump first announced his candidacy in 2016.
Personally, while I think DeSantis is a terrible politician who recently used Venezuelan refugees as political chess pieces, I don't think he poses the deep, existential threat to democracy that another Trump presidential run does. While I obviously hope neither of them wins in 2024, at least DeSantis doesn't make me think that the country could fall into outright fascism under him.
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