WHO'S WINNING THIS WAR?

 

With the American/Israeli bombing of Iran about to reach its 6th week, figuring out just how the war will end (and how its been going) has been difficult.  Although President Donald Trump formally addressed the nation about the war last Wednesday, his address was full of his usual bluster, exaggerations and contradictions; at one point he said he planned to bomb Iran "back to the stone ages where it belongs", but he also said that he was open to negotiations.  He added that the US didn't need to worry about Iran's successful  constricting of oil shipments in the Gulf of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's oil is ferried, and told our country's allies to "go get your own oil."  It should be mentioned that none of these countries were consulted about this war before it started or have showed any real support for it. But now that he's caused this problem, he expects the same allies that he has openly insulted in the past (remember that he recently gave a speech at the UN in which he told their leaders that their nations are "all going to hell") to deal with it themselves.  

Things get even more muddied when you look at today's developments, as Trump posted on his social media outlet “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH.”  So I suppose we are concerned about opening the straits now?  And, it must be pointed out, Trump's threats to bomb power plants and bridges in Iran is threatening a war crime against civilian infrastructure, not that he cares.

From Iran's point of view, they very well may be seeing themselves as not so much winning this war as surviving it, and perhaps emerging in an even stronger position afterwards: by shutting off the straits, they've sent oil and fertilizer shortages and shockwaves throughout the global economy, proving that despite their country's comparatively small size, they can have a big impact. (Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, has called this “the greatest global energy security threat in history”.) Its had a big enough impact that the US recently waived sanctions against Iranian oil to offset global shortages, which could bring billions of dollars into the nation's coffers.  And while some Iranian leaders have been killed, the theocratic government and the military forces it controls are still in power.  The recent shooting down of American planes shows how their military can still have an effect (thankfully, the pilots of those planes have been rescued).  They also may even be able to began to reconstitute their nuclear weapons program after the war ends, with the uranium ore necessary for it still in the country.

While worldwide oil shortages are hurting, one country is benefitting from it: Russia.  To offset the global oil shortage, the US has loosened sanctions on other countries buying Russian oil, which will inevitably aid in Russia's attempt to over run the Ukraine.  (German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper have all spoken out against it.). Another winner in this war is China; because China was already transitioning to renewable energy, the oil shortage didn't hit them as hard as the rest of the world.  And on top of that, many other countries, worried about not only about this oil crisis but future ones, have understandably followed China's lead.  And since China is the world leader in manufacturing renewable energy resources, China's economy has profited; as the Financial Times reports, since the war started, the stock market valuation of each of China’s three biggest battery companies has increased by roughly 20 percent.  And electric vehicle  sales have also increased across the world, with China's highly successful BYD electric vehicle company seeing a huge rise in sales.  Yes, in an absurd bit of irony, the climate change denying, fossil fuel loving Trump may have embarked on a war that exposes the world's dependence on oil to such an extent that he's pushing the world towards renewable energy. (This is the only aspect of this war that I'm glad about.)

So how do things stand for the future?  Well, Trump is considering sending in ground troops to take that uranium that Iran could use for nuclear weapons sometime in the future, which would be a very difficult and deadly operation, not to mention unpopular with the public, who are united in their opposition to boots on the ground in Iran. So I doubt that will happen.  To me, it appears that at some point he will declare victory, no matter how chaotic things are, and stop the bombing and pretend that everything went perfectly, ignoring that Iran itself may not see the war as ended, and Israel may not either.  But Trump will never admit that this war was a mistake started on whim with little planning, even though that's how history will see it.