CAN BIDEN SURVIVE THIS DEBATE?

 

The first televised presidential debate took place in 1960 between Richard Nixon and John Kennedy.  People listening to the debate on the radio thought that Nixon did better, but people watching on TV preferred Kennedy.  The reason given was that Nixon refused makeup beforehand and looked pasty on the screen.  And after seeing tonights first debate, it's possible future historians may see  Joe Biden's sore throat as the equivalent of Nixon's lack of makeup. 

I tuned into tonight's debate with cautious optimism: there seemed to be some momentum towards Biden in the past few weeks, with Trump's lead shrinking after he was convicted on 34 felony counts.  But within minutes of the debate starting my heart sank: the sore throat giving Biden a scratchy voice hurt, but even worse were the moments were he seemed to lose his train of thought, which Trump pounced on.

Although Biden did seem to get better as the debate went on,  it didn't make up for his earlier stumbles.  And he seemed to have to no counterpunches to Trump's absurd verbal charges.  He looked, weak, feeble and yes, old.  The one thing he needed to show was that he has enough vigor to get through 4 more years, and he didn't clear that bar.

Trump for his part ran through his usual list of grievances, lies and boasts.  He shrugged off the felony charges and accused Biden of being a felon at one point.  He ducked questions and moved each one to attacks on Biden concerning the border and inflation.  As horrible as he is, he came across as stronger, certainly more energetic, and yes, presidential.  

Now, presidents have recovered from bad debate performances before: Barack Obama clearly lost to Mitt Romney in 2012 in their first debate, but Obama turned it around in later debates.  In 1984 Ronald Reagan clearly lost his train of thought and rambled through a debate, and he too turned it around in later debates and won handily.  But I don't see Biden, in a race as close as this one is, recovering from this disaster.  

Is it too late for Biden to step down?  Technically, no, he doesn't accept the nomination officially until the Democratic National Convention in a few months.  But there's no way for him to pushed out, he has to step down on his own, and his clearly doesn't want to do that.

My hope is that his aides sit him down tomorrow and plainly tell him that he lost, show him the clips from the debate that made him look weak, and say that he has no chance of winning.  Perhaps that will change his mind.  Finding another candidate would be tricky for the Democrats, but this debate was a mess, and Trump, who was already leading, will have the wind on his back after this.  Four more years of Trump is starting to look likely.